AMC 12 2025 Part B Problem 20

A frog hops along the number line according to the following rules:

  • It starts at 0.
  • If it is at 0, it moves to 1 with probability \dfrac{1}{2} and disappears with probability \dfrac{1}{2}.
  • For n=1,2,3, if it is at n, it moves to n+1 with probability \dfrac{1}{4}, to n-1 with probability \dfrac{1}{4}, and disappears with probability \dfrac{1}{2}.

What is the probability that the frog reaches 4?

Answer Choices:

A. \dfrac{1}{101}

B. \dfrac{1}{100}

C. \dfrac{1}{99}

D. \dfrac{1}{98}

E. \dfrac{1}{97}